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Sunday, January 5, 2014

Men Are 32x More Likely to Be Killed By Lightning than Falsely Accused of Rape


In a variety of ways, it's been said to me for as long as I can remember:

"Be careful about what girls you sleep with. They might accuse you of raping them."

"Did you hear about that chick accusing so-and-so of raping her? What a cunt."

"Don't stick your dick in crazy."

It starts early, and there is little-to-no counterpoint. You can draw a straight line between pulling girls' pigtails in grade school to assaulting or raping them in later years. By the time college rolls around, young men have been handed a societal philosophy of entitlement: women are there for your pleasure, regardless of her consent. Especially if she's "asking for it" i.e. clothes, flirting, drinking, walking alone at night (breathing?). Especially if you feel threatened by her on any level.

This way of thinking is so pervasive that women have been framed as "cold" or "bitches" if they even so much as fail to smile at men who express interest in them. Lonely men populate the online world lamenting how "women hate nice guys and only like assholes" and about "getting friendzoned" and why-oh-why won't this woman sleep with me, I am SUCH a nice guy.

We live in a culture that treats women like products to be bought and sold, and when those "objects" suddenly assert their right to human value, many (if not most) men feel threatened.

This is no more evident than in the false rape accusation hysteria. It is communicated to boys and men, time after time, that women will accuse them of rape at the drop of a hat. False rape accusations are pushed forward as a common and random act of craziness that any nice boy will find themselves in because those feminazis have made the world so damn hard for men.

Women who have the courage to come forward about their rapes are regularly shamed and ostracized, and the attacker is defended, even by women who refuse to believe that a "nice guy" would do such a thing.

Recently, Occidental College--who has been the legitimate focus of criticism by activists on campus sexual violence--created an online reporting system for victims of rape and sexual assault. MRAs, or "Men's Rights Activists (perhaps more accurately known as insecure, woman-hating assholes) led a campaign that flooded the online reporting system with over 400 false reports in the span of a week.

In the past week, "A Voice for Men" founder Paul Elam, ever empathetic and reasonable, is leading his own campaign to attack Karen Smith--the Executive Director of the Sexual Assault Centre of Edmonton--by having his followers "falsely accuse" her of rape.

Her crime? She had the audacity to lead a successful movement in Edmonton called "Don't Be That Guy" that resulted in a drop of rapes and sexual assaults in the area.

I have to admit that in my early adulthood, this was a concern in the back of my mind. I had managed to learn about enthusiastic consent, and I felt I was respectful toward women, but deep down, I was worried that I would become a target of false accusations.

But here's the thing: if you look at the statistics, "false rape" is something that should rarely--if ever--cross the mind of any man.

The FBI's last statement on "unfounded" rape accusations put them at 8 percent of all reports. And that's being generous because those defined as "unfounded" are labeled so for a variety of reasons: if the victim didn't fight back, if the attacker didn't use a weapon, if the victim did not sustain injuries, or if the victim had a prior relationship with their attacker.

NONE of those should ever be used to dismiss rape; they are not indicative of consent, let alone enthusiastic consent.

So, that 8 percent is a generous figure to false rape propagandists.

But now we go deeper. The Department of Justice annually compiles a report called the National Crime Victimization Survey and estimated in 2012 that a mere 28 percent of rapes are reported.

So, of all rapes, reported or unreported, we see that generous estimate of false rape accusations drop to 2.2 percent.

Think about that. If you hear of a woman who has reported a rape, and you suspect she's lying, there's, at the very best, an 8 percent chance you're right. At worst, even giving that FBI figure the benefit of the doubt despite its incredibly flawed system of disregarding consent, you have only a 2.2 percent chance of being correct.

Next time you're ready to throw out some bullshit assertion that a woman is lying about being raped, ask yourself if you're ready for those odds. Is it worth the speculation of ruining a victim's reputation based on no evidence because you couldn't do the necessary critical thinking?

But now, let's go deeper. Studies compiled by the Kinsey Institute estimate that 18-29 year-olds have some form of sexual activity with another person (or people) "an average of 112 times a year, 30-39 year-olds an average of 86 times per year, and 40-49 year-olds an average of 69 times per year."

Because false rape accusation hysteria is especially prevalent among young adults, let's apply these numbers to the 15-39 demographic, which engages in interpersonal sexual activity an average of 99 times a year (with the assumption this data can be extrapolated for 15-18 year-olds):

There are 103 million Americans in this age range. If the average number of annual interpersonal sex acts for each American is 99 and men ostensibly make up at least half of every instance of sexual intercourse, that comes out to 5.1 billion instances of some form of interpersonal sexual activity for 15-39 year-old men in the United States.

The FBI estimated there were 84,376 forcible rapes reported in 2012. If 8 percent of those rapes are false, that would come out to 6,750 cases in which the victim was lying about her or his assault.

Remember that even 6,750 is being generous because of the FBI's flimsy 1996 definition of "unfounded" rape accusations.

Even so, that would mean that the odds of any sexually-active male between the ages of 15 and 39 has a 750,000 to 1 chance of being falsely accused of rape.

Here's another way to look at it. The National Institute of Justice estimates that men have a 1 in 33 chance of being raped or sexually assaulted in their lifetime.

In other words, men are 27,500x more likely to be raped than falsely accused of rape.

Did you read that? MRAs should be far more concerned with addressing rape culture itself as an issue, but that would leave little room to bash feminists, right?

Just for fun, here are other things more likely to happen to you than being falsely accused of rape, as provided by the National Safety Council:

- Death by lightning (1 in 84,079)
- Killed by a dog (1 in 120,864)
- Killed by fireworks (1 in 386,766)

You could be killed by lightning 9 times before being on par statistically with being falsely accused of rape.

But it's not all doom and gloom. You're also more likely to win $10,000 in the Powerball lottery (1 in 648,975.96)  before being falsely accused of rape.

Let me know how that works out for you.

And again, this is all based on that inflated 8 percent.

If we go with the more accurate 2.2 percent, we're looking at a 2.7 million to 1 chance of being falsely accused of rape.

In case you're wondering, that's approximately 32 deaths by lightning strike.

ALL of this is if we assume all risk of false rape accusations on straight men. If we were to add nuance on gender or sexuality, these odds would only increase.

And here's the kicker: because only 14.2% of reported rapes lead to a conviction, even those few who are falsely accused can rely on our justice system to have their back.

So, now that we've established false rape is wildly overblown and statistically unworthy of concern on the part of any given male, let's look at some stats that DO matter:

1 in 4 women will survive a rape or attempted rape in her lifetime.

95.2% of victims of rape are women (NCVS).

And yet, this entire statistical exercise does not include considering how male privilege shapes our view of women who come forward about their trauma.

Here's hoping these numbers will help them get the justice they deserve.


  1. Although I agree with your basic premise, "You can draw a straight line between pulling girls' pigtails in grade school to assaulting or raping them in later years" needs serious supporting data.

    It doesn't help any argument to include statements like this.

    1. I don't think he's saying "a person who rapes definitely pulled girls' hair in grade school", it's more like that sense of entitlement to a girl's/woman's body is prevalent throughout life.

  2. Furthermore, what counts as "unfounded"? What about those falsely accused and convicted, and later found innocent (e.g. Brian Banks)? Are those included in the count?

  3. You say that the "unfounded" guidelines are flimsy. Why do you assume that they are being generous? What guidelines go to support your claim? How do we know that they aren't generous but are actually stingy?

    1. "those defined as "unfounded" are labeled so for a variety of reasons: if the victim didn't fight back, if the attacker didn't use a weapon, if the victim did not sustain injuries, or if the victim had a prior relationship with their attacker."

      The wiki page has a good explanation of why "unfounded" isn't the same as "false."

  4. Enthusiastic consent is the only way to go. Thanks for standing up.

  5. Your relative risk comparisons (lighting, dog bite, etc) are lifetime risks, and therefore not directly comparable to your imputed annual false-rape accusation risk.

    There were ~250 lighting deaths over the last 7 years in the U.S. Even using your 2.4% false report rate, and the minimum of FBI total data point of reported rapes(84,000), that would yield well over 2000 cases a year that could be considered "false."

  6. Castration ain't that bad. I was born in 1960, the only person, of questionable gender, known to be viableas a male and as a female (a true hermaphrodite), able to produce children as a mother and/or father. So the doctors at my birth (at MacDill A.F. base, Tampa Fla.), asked my Mother to choose; boy or girl? My Mom had a boy, and a girl, and another boy already, so she chose girl. Next day instead of John; after a little snip, and some reconstruction I was Lisa. Now my family was instructed to never talk about my birth of questionable gender, to never tell my siblings or me, and I would have never "for-sure" known, but the doctors and nurses present had observed, and followed my "adaptation" closely, and at 26, they came forward thru an "intermediary", to inform me, "because they believed, I had never adjusted to being female", and so they offered me a free sex-change. I told them unless they could restore me to, as God had made me, I really do not believe, I would be any happier, or better "adjusted" being either male or female, so thanks, but no thanks. I asked my Dad about my birth, after having the encounter. As to "if it was true", and Dad said "Lisa when you were born, we didn't know whether to take you home, or take you to the circus"! He is so funny! So I asked him "Why not, just leave me as I was born"? And he replied: "Because at school, and such public places there are only boys or girls bathrooms, there are no it, bathrooms, Lisa" My Dad, such a "wise-acre", but ya know a lot of my Aunts and GreatAunts, cousins, and Grandparents, were present at my birth, and I think some of them musta talked about it, cause, they either called meb John, or Cousin IT, hardly never did they call me, Lisa.

  7. Perhaps Chucky should have a chat with Brian Banks.

  8. Can a false accusation really hurt him that much? Brian Banks has male privilege, after all.

    1. Ah yes. Excellent point. Speaking of, I guess I should have a chat with the lad who sleeps on a park bench, using a newspaper for a blanket and searches the garbage can for his next meal about his supposed "male privilege".

    2. Oh no, homelessness is just "patriarchy hurts men."

  9. What you computed was the probability that a man will be falsely accused of rape after having sex once*. You then compared this number to the lifetime risk of other things. You can't do that. If you want to compare the lifetime risk of being falsely accused of rape to the lifetime risk of other things, you're off by 3-4 orders of magnitude.

    *Which isn't even a useful number since it varies wildly depending on who you are having sex with.

  10. It looks like the numbers you're using are a bit off

    From the linked article:

    “False rape hysteria”, it informs us, is perpetrated by “men’s rights activists, more accurately known as insecure woman-hating assholes”, because they think “women are products to be bought and sold and when these objects assert their right to human value many (if not most) men feel threatened.”

    Now let’s hear from a guy on the r/mensrights community on Reddit:
    Anyway, like I said, it’s been just over a year since [I was falsely accused of rape]. Since then I haven’t been the same. The most striking thing that I’ve noticed is the paranoia that I have almost every waking moment. Of everybody. Of men, of women, and even friends. I can’t bring myself to date women anymore. I have panic attacks every time I see a police officer. I constintly think that I’m being followed. The night I came home from being interviewed by the cops I drank myself to sleep and I’ve been doing that ever since. If I don’t any flicker of light makes me think that the police are here to arrest me. I’ve been able to fake a normal social life to my family and work and the friends I have left but most don’t know anything about this. I’m not looking for pity from anyone. In fact, I’m doing better than I have been. The reason I’m posting this is because I want people to know how bad being accused of something like rape can hurt and scar someone.
    Man, what an “insecure, woman-hating asshole.”

  11. Chucky, there is something I don't understand. You admit that ~8% of rape accusations are false. This is 1 in 10. 10% is not a big deal? I don't understand how this number is not a big deal?

    1. Because men are the privileged oppressors.

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  13. I was falsely accused at the age of 17 with a long time high school traumatised me..I'm miserable all the time I'm 25 now and not a day goes by that I don't think how one accusation could have effected my entire was all because she had a bf and didn't want to tell him. It really messed me up I do not wish this on anyone. It really has changed me as a person I'm not the same and I don't think I will ever be 100% again and this blog is clearly written by a not saying every rape is fake I'm just saying, false accusations are a lot more common than your equation. I've turned into a very bitter angry person who doesn't trust anyone and drink myself to sleep from time to time when I'm feeling my emotions on this matter taking over

  14. Cheer up, you have male privilege. :)

    1. Explain to me this "male privilege" thing. Privilege means something that, no matter what, is a positive. And being male isn't always better than being female. Most homeless people are men, and most of the homeless shelters are for women and children. There are more scholarships out there for women to get into college than men, even though there are less women trying to get into college. In every sport, there are more scholarships for women. For all gender symmetric sports, there are 32,656 scholarships for women vs 20,206 for men. Even in golf, one of the few sports where males outnumber females in terms of teams at 285 to 228, the scholarships available for each gender are still skewed (1,368 to 1,282.5). Or if that's not enough, then how about the fact that 90% of deaths in the workplace are men, or that men get sentenced to death 20 times more often than women for the same act, or that women only work on average 86% as long a week as men?

      Don't get me wrong, there is sexism in the world. But there is no "male privilege." And, contrary to popular belief, men have a much higher chance than 1 in 750,000 of being falsely accused of rape.

    2. I was being sarcastic, hence the :).

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  16. 2.7 million to one against being falsely accused? are you stupid? or do you think everyone who reads your shitty attempts at math are?

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